Hydrometeorological Challenges in Forecasting Streamflow

Prof. Witold F. Krajewski

Rose & Joseph Summers Chair in Water Resources Engineering

The University of Iowa

Monday November 7, 2022, 2 PM ET

Abstract:

Recent technological innovations in computing, communication, sensors, and informatics stimulate
development of new capabilities and challenges. In this talk, the author focuses on real-time riverine
streamflow and flood forecasting and discusses some old and new challenges and deficiencies in our
scientific understanding of the key relevant aspects. To illustrate his points, he conceptualizes river flow
as a continuum across scales from a single hillslope to a large river basin emphasizing rainfall to runoff
conversion vs. flow routing. He examines the role of rainfall quantities vs. our observational and
predictive modeling capabilities. Can we estimate (QPE) rainfall well enough? How well is well
enough? What is the worth of rainfall forecasting (QPF) for skillful streamflow forecasting? Does it
depend on spatial and temporal scales? How? Another basic challenge is our inability to decompose the
predictive uncertainty into that due to the inputs (e.g. rainfall and evapotranspiration) and that due to the
rainfall-runoff model. The author also touches on the challenges presented by the proper use of data
assimilation and artificial intelligence.

Biosketch:

Dr. Witold F. Krajewski is the Rose & Joseph Summers Chair in Water Resources Engineering at the
University of Iowa. He also serves as Director of the Iowa Flood Center.

Dr. Krajewski’s scientific interests concern measuring, modeling, and forecasting precipitation using
radar and satellite remote sensing. His current research focuses on understanding the genesis and
evolution of floods through field data and modeling, and the quantification of uncertainty in hydrologic
prediction at a range of temporal and spatial scales. Dr. Krajewski has published over 260 papers in
refereed journals on these topics.

He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and
a fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society. He has served
on numerous committees and panels of these and other professional organizations, and on the editorial
boards of several journals. He was editor of Advances in Water Resources. In 2012, he was chair of the
Board of Directors of the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc.

Webinar:

Event site: https://go.umd.edu/krajewski
Zoom Webinar: https://go.umd.edu/krajewskiwebinar
Zoom Meeting ID: 919 5532 3758
Zoom password: essic
US Toll: +13017158592
Global call-in numbers: https://umd.zoom.us/u/aMElEpvNu
For IT assistance:
Cazzy Medley: cazzy@umd.edu

Resources:
Seminar schedule & archive: https://go.umd.edu/essicseminar
Seminar Google calendar: https://go.umd.edu/essicseminarcalendar
Seminar recordings on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/ESSICUMD